Russia’s cash inflow plummeted during second year of war

Bloomberg News

Russia’s current account surplus slumped in 2023, the first full year under sweeping sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies over the invasion of Ukraine that have curbed the country’s export revenues.

The current account balance – the difference between cash flowing into the country and outflows – amounted to just $50.2 billion last year, dropping from a record $238 billion at the end of 2022, according to preliminary central bank data published on Friday. The decrease was more than officials expected and brought the annual surplus to its lowest level since the 2020 COVID pandemic.

Exports dropped by $169 billion to $423 billion, which is “mainly due to less favorable prices for key Russian export goods,” the Bank of Russia said in its statement. At the same time, imports recovered to $304 billion.

The central bank may revise its current account estimates as additional data becomes available after a delay. Data for October and November was revised on Friday, while data for the July-October period was revised last month.

Russia’s revenues from energy exports plummeted after an oil price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine took full effect last year. Gas flows to Europe have been capped all year.

The average price of Urals, Russia’s main crude-export blend, dropped more than 17% last year to $62.99 a barrel, according to the Finance Ministry. That’s still above the $60-a-barrel cap, but the current discounts are significantly above the historic average of some $2 to $3 a barrel. The gap reached nearly $14 a barrel in December, according to the data.

Proceeds from oil and gas are still a key source of funding for the war, accounting for almost a third of total budget revenue.

The current account surplus shrank to less than $1 billion in December from $4.7 billion in November, the central bank said. According to its data, the surplus amounted to $10.7 billion in the fourth quarter, down by about a third from the previous period and falling short of the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Bank of Russia forecast that the balance may slightly increase to $75 billion this year, assuming that average global crude prices remain at current levels.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.