NCAA tournament bracketology: A once-in-a-decade feat is in play with MWC, Gonzaga has work to do and EWU makes its debut
It will come as no surprise to anyone paying even the slightest attention to college basketball that power conference schools gobble up most of the NCAA Tournament’s at-large bids.
In fact, only twice in the 21st century has a conference outside what have traditionally been the top six (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) managed to have six teams earn NCAA berths in the same year.
One was Conference USA in 2004, and half of that six-team contingent (Cincinnati, DePaul and Louisville) was off to the Big East two seasons later.
The other was the Atlantic 10 in 2014 (and all six of those teams remain in that conference).
Another decade later and right on cue, that short list might be about to grow.
One year after a riveting regular season featuring five credible at-large contenders (and four breaking through to the field of 68), the Mountain West is even better this season. The conference’s top six teams are all firmly in the at-large picture, and all six appear in this week’s bracket projection.
San Diego State, the national runner-up in 2023, predictably shows up. So do projected contenders such as Nevada and New Mexico, which are led by veteran backcourts (the Wolf Pack with Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas, the Lobos with Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr.).
Boise State was an NCAA Tournament team last year and brought back plenty of pieces (including forwards Tyson Degenhart – a former Mt. Spokane star – and Chibuzo Agbo and guard Max Rice), and while it got off to a slow start, it was 9-1 since the start of December before Tuesday’s loss to UNLV.
Colorado State took a step back from a 2022 NCAA appearance last year because of injuries and the early loss of David Roddy to the NBA. But the Rams were one of the country’s top teams in nonconference play, thanks in large part to elite point guard Isaiah Stevens.
The unexpected development came from a program that landed an NCAA berth in 2023. Utah State lost coach Ryan Odom to VCU, hired Danny Sprinkle away from two-time Big Sky champ Montana State and is fielding an almost entirely new roster.
But Sprinkle brought aptly named big man Great Osobor (18.7 points per game, 9.6 rebounds per game) with him from Bozeman along with guard Darius Brown II. That’s the foundation of a team also leaning on a holdover redshirt freshman (Mason Falslev) and key backcourt transfers from Coastal Carolina (Josh Uduje) and Maryland (Ian Martinez). Together, they led the Aggies (16-2, 4-1) to a 15-game winning streak before Tuesday’s loss at New Mexico.
It might require some needle-threading for all six of those teams to be in the at-large mix until the end. But with seven conference teams entering Wednesday in the top 85 of the NET (UNLV, despite a 9-7 record, has a solid overall profile and has picked off Creighton, New Mexico and Boise State) and the other four teams all ranked 173rd or worse, avoiding losses to the conference’s second tier is critical.
So far, so good. The Mountain West’s top six is a combined 9-0 against the bottom four. Just as important, it is a combined 86-18, with six of the losses coming against each other.
That half-dozen is starting the second half of the regular season from a position of strength, though Boise State a bit less so than the rest. Nonetheless, it’s an enviable spot, and it all but ensures the Mountain West boasts bracket-relevant games on nearly every night it plays games until mid-March.
Field notes
Last four included: Nebraska, Texas A&M, Boise State, Kansas State
First four on the outside: N.C. State, Wake Forest, Miami, Colorado
Next four on the outside: Providence, James Madison, Gonzaga, Syracuse
Moving in: Boise State, Central Connecticut State, Denver, Drexel, Eastern Washington, Jackson State, Kansas State, Lafayette, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Oakland, Saint Mary’s, Sam Houston, Texas Christian, Troy, Vermont, Western Illinois
Moving out: Colgate, College of Charleston, Colorado, Gonzaga, James Madison, Marshall, Merrimack, Miami, Morehead State, Providence, Purdue Fort Wayne, South Dakota State, Southern, U-Mass. Lowell, Wake Forest, Weber State, Western Kentucky
Conference call: Big 12 (10), Big East (six), SEC (eight), Big Ten (six), Mountain West (six), ACC (three), Pac-12 (three), American Athletic (two)
Bracket projection: Midwest vs. West; South vs. East
Midwest region
Indianapolis
(1) Purdue vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/North Carolina Central-OHIO VALLEY/Western Illinois winner
(8) Mississippi vs. (9) Seton Hall
Spokane
(5) Iowa State vs. (12) MISSOURI VALLEY/Indiana State
(4) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Memphis vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Irvine
Indianapolis
(3) Auburn vs. (14) HORIZON/Oakland
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) Northwestern
Charlotte, N.C.
(7) PAC-12/Oregon vs. (10) Texas Christian
(2) Duke vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Saint Peter’s
Maybe the biggest winner from the first half of January is Seton Hall, which has rattled off five consecutive victories – including three on the road – to make itself a Big East contender. … Result-based metrics peg Memphis as a top-10 team, the predictive ones more like a top-40 team. The Tigers check most every box, and a No. 4 seed is a fair placement at this point. …
Some skepticism over Auburn still feels warranted, because the Tigers have only one victory (at home against Texas A&M) against this projected field. But the numbers are the numbers, and it’s difficult to envision the committee slotting Bruce Pearl’s bunch any lower than a No. 4 seed if the tournament started today. … Even with an overtime loss at Cincinnati on Tuesday, Texas Christian vaults into the field on the strength of victories over Oklahoma and Houston last week.
West Region
Memphis, Tenn.
(1) Houston vs. (16) CONFERENCE USA/Sam Houston
(8) IVY/Princeton vs. (9) Villanova
Salt Lake City
(5) SEC/Alabama vs. (12) WEST COAST/Saint Mary’s
(4) Brigham Young vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Samford
Pittsburgh
(3) BIG TEN/Wisconsin vs. (14) BIG SOUTH/High Point
(6) Oklahoma vs. (11) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon
Salt Lake City
(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (10) South Carolina
(2) Arizona vs. (15) SUMMIT/Denver
Houston dropped its first two Big 12 road games last week, at Iowa State and TCU. The Cougars are discovering the realities of how difficult their new neighborhood is, but their profile still warrants a No. 1 seed for now. … Not only is Gonzaga nowhere to be found, but West Coast Conference leader Saint Mary’s would be a borderline at-large candidate as well. The Gaels do have nice victories against Colorado State and New Mexico. …
Wisconsin was bumped off the No. 2 line with its loss at Penn State on Tuesday, but it remains the Big Ten leader. The Badgers had won 12 of 13 and possess a stronger profile than everyone else in their conference besides Purdue. … South Carolina took a seeding tumble after dropping two of its past three. The Gamecocks fell Tuesday at home against Georgia, which itself is closer to the field than most would guess.
South Region
Omaha, Neb.
(1) Kansas vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN/Jackson State-PATRIOT/Lafayette winner
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) New Mexico
Spokane
(5) Florida Atlantic vs. (12) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State
(4) Marquette vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Akron
Pittsburgh
(3) Creighton vs. (14) AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(6) BIG 12/Texas Tech vs. (11) Nebraska/Texas A&M winner
Memphis, Tenn.
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Nevada
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) SUN BELT/Troy
New Mexico just had a crucial week, taking down San Diego State and Utah State to put some real heft into its résumé. The Lobos need to take care of business at Air Force and San José State over the next two games before fellow postseason contenders Nevada and Boise State visit the Pit at month’s end. … Not so much for postseason inclusion purposes, but Marquette really needed Monday’s 13-point defeat of Villanova. The Golden Eagles play four of their next five away from Milwaukee. …
That’s a fine collection of past and present Big 12 teams crammed into that 6/11 line: Texas Tech, Nebraska and Texas A&M. Texas Tech had won nine in a row but lost at Houston on Wednesday. … Clemson has dropped four of five, including Tuesday’s double-overtime outing against Georgia Tech. The Tigers could use a victory at Florida State on Saturday, but the Seminoles have played well this month.
East Region
Brooklyn, N.Y.
(1) BIG EAST/Connecticut vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Central Connecticut State
(8) Utah vs. (9) Cincinnati
Brooklyn, N.Y.
(5) Illinois vs. (12) Boise State-Kansas State winner
(4) Kentucky vs. (13) COASTAL/Drexel
Omaha, Neb.
(3) Baylor vs. (14) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington
(6) ATLANTIC 10/Dayton vs. (11) Michigan State
Charlotte, N.C.
(7) Colorado State vs. (10) St. John’s
(2) ACC/North Carolina vs. (15) ATLANTIC SUN/Kennesaw State
One deep-in-the-weeds quirk to this bracket is Central Connecticut State getting slotted without a trip to Dayton for a play-in game. The last NEC champion to avoid one was LIU Brooklyn in 2012. … Kentucky stumbled over the weekend in overtime at Texas A&M, but the Wildcats get six of their next nine at home. The Wildcats are one of the more entertaining teams in the country; they’ve reached 90 points in eight of their 15 games and scored in the 80s on six other occasions. …
If Michigan State is going to make the NCAA Tournament as is its custom, it is going to need to win a couple of games beyond the state line. The Spartans’ lone victory outside of East Lansing came against Baylor in Detroit. … North Carolina hadn’t won seven in a row since February-March 2019. The Tar Heels reached that number with a defeat of Louisville at the Dean Dome on Wednesday.